Working Papers

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of large-scale family policies in a heterogeneous-agent overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and child investments, a multi-period demographic structure, and childcare choices. I find that cash rewards for childbirth raise fertility at the expense of human capital and intergenerational mobility in the long run. Meanwhile, average welfare rises as the old-age dependency ratio drops, leading to lower budget-balancing tax rates and higher consumption over the life cycle. In contrast, childcare and education subsidies are less cost-effective in boosting fertility, but they reduce income inequality and raise intergenerational mobility.

Bounding Fertility Elasticities (submitted)

I propose a technique for bounding the fertility elasticity, i.e., the magnitude of fertility responses to changes in the cost of children. I show that a bound can be derived under mild assumptions for any country and year with minimal information required. Overall, the range is consistent with empirical estimates and is more precise than current meta-analyses. The bound imposes additional restrictions on parameters in models with endogenous fertility. It also provides an evaluation of the exogenous fertility assumption that is widely used in structural models studying child-related policies.

Work in Progress

Education and Global Fertility Decline

Trade, Fertility, and Education: The Family Connection Redux

with Ananth Seshadri

Increasing China's Fertility Rate: Policy Tools and Aggregate Outcomes

with Alan Yang


Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 129, 1-20, July 2022

Staying at Home: Mobility Effects of COVID-19

with Sam Engle and John Stromme

Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 4, 86-102, April 2020

County-level data, VoxEU article