Working Papers

Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of large-scale family policies in a heterogeneous-agent economy featuring the quantity-quality trade-off and Social Security.

Teachers and the Evolution of Aggregate Inequality

With endogenous human capital formation, what are the dynamic impacts of performance-based teacher compensations on the income dispersion among teachers, that among non-teachers, and intergenerational mobility?

Asymmetric Fertility Elasticities (new)

with Sam Engle and Chong Pang

Is it more difficult for the government to raise fertility than to reduce it? If so, what could be the reason behind and what are the policy implications? 


Bounding Fertility Elasticities

Economics Letters, Volume 228, July 2023

Working paper version

I propose a technique for bounding the magnitude of fertility responses to changes in the cost of children, i.e., fertility elasticity, for any country and year. The range is consistent with empirical estimates and is more precise than current meta-analyses. 

with Ananth Seshadri

Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 129, 1-20, July 2022

NBER Working Paper

Nearly 40% of births in the United States are unintended, and this phenomenon is disproportionately common among Black Americans and women with lower education. Given that being born to unprepared parents significantly affects children’s outcomes, could family planning access affect intergenerational persistence of economic status? We extend the standard Becker–Tomes model by incorporating an endogenous family planning choice. In a policy counterfactual where states reduce family planning costs for the poor, intergenerational mobility improves by 0.3 standard deviations on average. We also find that differences in family planning costs account for 20% of the racial gap in upward mobility.

Staying at Home: Mobility Effects of COVID-19

with Sam Engle and John Stromme

Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 4, 86-102, April 2020

County-level data, VoxEU article

We combine GPS data on changes in average distance travelled by individuals at the county level with Covid-19 case data and other demographic information to estimate how individual mobility is affected by local disease prevalence and restriction orders to stay at home. We find that a rise of local infection rate from 0% to 0.003% is associated with a reduction in mobility by 2.31%. An official stay-at-home restriction order corresponds to reducing mobility by 7.87%. Counties with larger shares of population over age 65, lower share of votes for the Republican Party in the 2016 presidential election, and higher population density are more responsive to disease prevalence and restriction orders. 

Work in Progress

Human Capital, Housework Marketization, and Income Inequality

Decomposing China's Fertility Decline

with Alan Yang and Yushi Wang

Retirement, Human Capital, and the Dynamics of Tax Base

with Long Hong

A Unified Theory of Family Structure, Gender Gaps, and Income Inequality


"Transforming Institutions: Labor Reallocation and Wage Growth in a Reunified Germany" (PHBS, December 2023)

by Sebastian Findeisen, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, Tommaso Porzio, Wolfgang Dauth